This section provides an overview of the selected country’s current situation. We have chosen 10 representative data points to help you quickly understand its export industry.
Here gives the definition of three index: Highest export revenue Product、Product Export revenue ranking and Most Similar economy on Export Industry Constitution.
①Highest export revenue Product:For any product in a specific year, identify all the exporting economies. Using the per capita GDP given by international organizations, we calculate the weighted average of the per capita GDP of all exporting countries (Based on shares of that product’s global export value). This weighted average value is the economic Export revenue for that product during that year. Choose the highest one among the export list of an economy.
②Product Export revenue ranking:To a current year, we obtain the export revenue index by calculating the weighted average of the economy export revenue. Only available to 205 countries or regions with relatively complete data which you can choose on the homepage. Now a ranking list is created.
③Most similar on export Industry Constitution:Referring to the country or region that is closest to the current economy. This is a combined result of Export Product Structure、Gross Domestic Product and per capita GDP.
Utilizing macro-statistical data and trade import and export figures during the past two years, we conduct an annual analysis of the main import and export products as well as the main trading partners of each country.
If you need to switch the analysis subject, please select the corresponding country in the top left corner, or you can visit the data center to view the rankings of all countries under specific indicators.
All data presented in trade history in sourced by Dalian Infobank. For analysis subjects with undisclosed data, we adopt a mirroring method by aggregating the data of all trading partners within the corresponding time period as the total trade volume of the target economy during that period.
This tool assists users in analyzing and positioning changes in trade value and the primary influencing factors for specific categories or economies in the international market between two selected years.
To begin, you need to identify the economy of interest in the top-left corner and determine the direction of trade you are interested in (import or export).
Next, choose from three analysis perspectives: trade amount for the current year, growth within a specified time period, or growth rate within that time period.
Then, specify the level of details you would like for the trade product, based on the HS code system.
Finally, select the analysis year or time period. (Available time periods range from 2010 to the latest year.)
Click the "Reset" button to rebuild the visualization.
Special Notes:
For growth and growth rate analysis within a specified time period, we categorize the query results into two options for visualization: Positive Growth and Negative Growth. You can choose between the two charts based on your needs.
When change value within a specified time period mode is on, a preliminary analysis result will appear below the console. This result is automatically generated by the program based on the query results.
When analyzing time periods, the comparison is based on the total annual amount of data obtained. If the data for current year is incomplete or still being updated, it may occur that the aggregated data for five months of the latest year is compared with the complete data for another year, resulting in a situation where exports of all categories are decreasing.
Map
After selecting a specific year, the economies on the global map are colored based on the export value of the current economy. The darker the color, the greater the export value of the analyzed year for that economy. When a competing economy is chosen, the colors of the economies on the map will reflect the relative competitiveness of the current economy and the competitor within the market region. The greater the difference in export value, the deeper the color. Additionally, the export competitiveness of specific goods can be analyzed by HS code. Furthermore, when the export value is switched to growth rate in the analysis options, the coloring will be determined by the difference between the two analyzed years (the change in export value).
Scatter Plot Mode
This mode allows an understanding of the import and export data between current economy and its competitors in a specific year. It provides a categorical breakdown of the trade surplus or deficit between the two economies. The competing countries, the analysis year, and the level of detail for the analysis categories (down to HS4) can be customized.
We have provided quick options for the top three trade competitors of the analyzed economy (based on total trade amount) for convenience.
This module displays the import/export and net value classifications for the current economy.
The image on the left allows an analysis of the trade value for import and export products, as well as the ranking of export international competitiveness for various products (broken down into broad Product categories, HS2, HS4, and HS6) within the current economy. This provides a direct understanding of its position in the industrial chain and the global goods trade market.
After selecting the economy to be analyzed, you can observe the international trade import and export data for various products and major product categories on a category-by-category basis. On the right-side control panel, you can customize the analysis categories and time period, define sorting priorities, and interact with the icons of major categories in the lower left corner to either exclude or separately analyze the trade situation of specific products.
The statistical units here are all in USD.
Based on complete yearly data, we quantify the export proximity between products represented by HS4 codes through mathematical methods. This page provides a visualization of the calculated results.
On the left is the proximity matrix. It displays the proximity through a heatmap. For any given region within the headmap, its horizontal and vertical coordinates represent two Hs4 codes. The higher the brightness, the stronger the correlation. The data has been normalized to ensure effective visualization. If the numerical reaches the preset value, we consider there to be a relationship between the two.
On the right side is the search bar. You can enter a currently traded HS4 code in, find the hs4 code with the highest export proximity to it. Please note that the calculation results may differ from your expectations, as not all related products have an export relation. For instance, certain textiles may require imported raw materials, and if the processing country does not allow these raw materials to export or lacks of the material. Under this situation, the raw materials and the finished product have a supply chain connection, but this may not be reflected in the calculation of export data proximity.
The export proximity displayed on this page primarily reflects the closeness of demand for production factors between products, outlining the likelihood of two products being exported in large quantities within the same country and during the same period.
This module assists users in understanding the international trade product structure of the currently selected country. It examines the product space and competitive industries of the country from three analysis angles: the Revealed Comparative Advantage index, export value, and relative distance from the industries already possessed by the country.
Depend on historical trade data, this module also analyzes the negative list of the country (industries prohibited by the government or unable to develop due to objective reasons), assessing the difficulty and potential benefits of developing industries that currently lack export competitive advantages.
Meanwhile, you can select a competitor country to observe the product competitiveness between the current country and the competitor, including competitive trends and potential complementarity.
We also provide a global trend mode, which showcases the most competitive and largest exporting countries for each product in a specific analysis year.
Due to the limited space, only a brief description is provided here. For more detailed explanations of concepts and principles, please refer to the comprehensive document on industrial space.
全球贸易与产业经济全景式俯瞰
Sinoimex
Introduction:
International trade is the engine of of China's economic growth. Under the current complex international situation, how to choose priority industries for development and which country has a greater export potential market are both important issues that must be studied in implementing long-term export planning. Therefore, a scientifically effective evaluation system is necessary to measure the international export competitiveness of each economy and enhance the potential returns of new products. In addition, considering the differences in historical development levels and international trade relations, as well as the differences in cultural and natural environments, the difficulty of developing the same industry varies among different countries. Therefore, our website will focus on the following question: how to accurately determine the most suitable industry for a country's current development? Can we horizontally compare the development difficulty of different industries for a specific economy and measure the gap in export capacity between countries through indicators? We will combine international trade-related theories and explore the analysis of global import and export data in recent years, hoping to provide reference for industrial development and help achieve high-quality growth.
Chapter 1: Related theory
1.1 Export competitiveness
First, we need to determine the standard for measuring the industrial competitiveness of countries in international trade, that is, under what circumstances do we consider that a country or region has an industrial export competitive advantage in a specific industry. In most cases, this can only be reflected through competition between the final products: the more relative market shares of the products produced, the more related enterprises and industries have, the higher the industrial competitiveness of the economy in this industry. Adam Smith is the founder of the theory of international processing and international trade. He proposed the theory of international division of labor and free trade based on the theory of absolute competitive advantage[1]. David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage[2] is the inheritance and development of Adam Smith's theory of absolute advantage. The core is that each country should produce goods that it is good at and meet demand in areas where it is not good at through trade, revealing the mutual benefit and necessity of international trade.
Changes in the international trade situation have brought new theories and models. The "Heckscher-Ohlin" model (H-O) proposed by two Swedish economists focuses on the differences in the endowments of production factors among countries. A country should export products with abundant production factors, and with the development of international trade, the prices of production factors of various countries will tend to be equal. There are four main theorems in its framework (Stolper-Samuelson theorem, Rybczynski theorem, Heckscher-Ohlin theorem, Factor-Price Equalization theorem). Rybczynski theorem: If the supply of a certain production factor increases, the production of goods that intensively use the factor will increase, and the production of goods that do not intensively use the factor will decrease. Lebzinski explored the impact of international trade on the scale changes of related domestic industries. The Heckscher-Ohlin theorem shows that a country tends to export products that are produced by intensive use of its endowment repeated factors. However, this model initially regarded the labor force of each country, that is, the knowledge and skills of the labor force, as the same, which became one of the reasons for the deviation between the H-O theory and reality.
In 1950, Russian-American economist Leontief attempted to test the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. He conducted a statistical analysis of the structure of U.S. foreign trade commodities and compiled a U.S. input-output table. After comparing the capital/labor ratio of export commodities with that of import substitution commodities, he found that the United States mainly exported labor-intensive products and imported capital-intensive products. However, according to the H-O theory, the situation of U.S. imports and exports is completely opposite. [3] There are many hypotheses to solve this problem. Leontief himself gave the effective labor theory. Due to different production technologies, the quality of labor in each country is also different. For example, assuming that the labor productivity of the United States at that time was three times that of other countries, then the U.S. exports contained a large amount of material capital and human capital, while the energy and bulk commodities imported by the United States were capital-intensive by definition, but in essence they were natural resource-intensive products. Another explanation is that the United States may use large agricultural machinery for agricultural production, so agricultural products are capital-intensive; while Vietnam still uses a large amount of labor, and agricultural products are labor-intensive; the density of production factors of the same products in different countries is different. Leontief calculated the production factor density of substitute products imported by the United States from other countries based on the production factor density of US exports, which would result in a certain deviation. The third explanation is that in addition to labor and capital, production factors also include natural resources. The United States exports products with high labor density and imports natural resources that the United States lacks. In addition, the trade protection policy adopted at that time also prevented the United States from importing labor-intensive products. In other words, the impact of industrial competitiveness is not only the scarcity of production factors, but also the impact of trade policies of various countries, especially trade protection.
Later, the product cycle theory proposed by American economist Vernon mainly states that at different stages of the product life cycle, there will be a transfer of countries producing and exporting the product. The life cycle of a new product is considered to be three stages: in the initial product innovation stage, a large amount of research and development costs are required. The product factor intensity during this period is manifested as technology intensive; in the mature stage of the product, capital and management factor inputs increase, and the production factor concentration is manifested as capital intensive. In the standardization period, the number of production enterprises increases, and the importance of cost and price in competition becomes more prominent. At this time, through the comparison of market, resource and labor prices, the product tends to be labor-intensive products, and developed countries change from exporters in the innovation and maturity period to importing the product from developing countries in the maturity period and start a new round of product innovation.
The above discussion is based on international trade across products or the same product in different periods, but in current international trade, it is very common for a specific economy to import and export products at the same time. The Fulvey model (also known as the new Heckscher-Ohlin theorem) proposed by Fulvey analyzes the industry, takes labor and capital as production factors, and considers the possibility of vertical intra-industry trade when similar products have different product qualities. It can be summarized into the following two conclusions: countries with abundant capital will export high-quality varieties of capital-intensive products; while countries with abundant labor will export low-quality varieties of labor-intensive and capital-intensive products. When a product is exported, there must be a consumer market for the related product in the country. Different exporting countries produce the same product of different quality due to differences in production factors such as capital, labor, scale, and natural resources. Differences in consumer quality preferences will exist for a long time. Therefore, a country can export high-quality products for international trade while importing relatively low-quality products to meet the needs of different levels of domestic consumers.
In the 1970s, a new trade theory based on economies of scale and imperfectly competitive markets emerged. The former further refined the analysis variables to the enterprise, analyzed the decision-making process of multinational companies and the competitiveness gap between companies of different sizes in the same industry, and emphasized the impact of trade structure and demand. The average income level of a country is the representative demand of a country. Only when producers meet this requirement can they achieve economies of scale, thereby achieving specialization and international trade competitiveness. The latter provides the necessity for the government to guide industrial policies, because the perfectly competitive market assumed by classical theory does not really exist: in the imperfectly competitive market that exists in reality, the development of certain technologically advanced industries will bring about technology and knowledge spillovers, bringing benefits to other sectors. The government should support these industries to promote the overall development of society. A further step is strategic trade policy, that is, the government should support and subsidize strategic industries that have an important role in promoting the domestic economy to enhance the overall industrial competitiveness.
Michael Porter proposed a series of influential theories and analytical models in his book "The Competitive Advantage of Nations" [4]. He determined that the best indicator to measure whether a country's specific industry has a competitive advantage is the ability to continuously export to other countries in large quantities. The key to a country's specific industry gaining international competitive advantage lies in four basic factors (production factors, demand factors, related and supporting industry factors, and corporate strategy, organization and competitive status factors). In addition, there is the integration of two auxiliary factors, government and opportunity, which is called Porter's diamond model.
Production factors include human resources (quality, quantity, proficiency, labor costs), natural resources (land fertility, quantity, arable land, climate, location and size), knowledge resources (scientific soft and hard, universities and private research institutions, etc.), capital resources (capital supply and cost, capital returns, degree of globalization, capital flow), infrastructure (communication systems, transportation facilities, means of payment, health care, social welfare, etc.). Production factors can be divided into two categories: primary factors and advanced factors. Primary factors are natural resources and geographical locations that a country is born with. Advanced factors refer to factors that are hard to obtain after long-term development and have strong roots. For a country to maintain its competitive advantage, its advanced factors are more important than primary factors (which explains why Japan and South Korea are not rich in natural resources but have developed economies).
Demand factors are the number of consumers with demand in the country. If there is fierce market competition in a country, then enterprises that can survive and develop by meeting domestic market demand can gain competitive advantages, but this requires that there must be a group of consumers who have high requirements for product quality (although monopoly enterprises occupy a large market size, this cannot be directly converted into competitive advantages). On the one hand, the domestic market is conducive to enterprises to establish economies of scale; on the other hand, if more domestic consumers have higher requirements for product quality and service than foreign products, then the country's products will have forward-looking and continuous service pressure compared with other countries' products, which will also enhance the international competitiveness of related industries.
Related and supporting industry factors refer to the international competitiveness of industries and suppliers related to enterprises. The competitive advantage of a country's specific industry cannot be separated from the support of domestic and international upstream and downstream suppliers and related industries. The innovation and improvement of related industries will also drive the upgrading of the competitiveness of the industry.
Enterprise organization, strategy and competitive status factors
Different industries are suitable for different company sizes and corporate cultures. Considering the differences in incentive mechanisms and company business objectives, the increase in domestic competition will bring different competitive strategies and products and services covering market segments to each company, and the imitation effect and personnel exchanges in the same industry will enhance the overall competitiveness and innovation speed of the country.
In addition, Porter also proposed the theory of industrial clusters in the book, which can be regarded as a further development of Marshall's theory of agglomeration economies and Weber's theory of industrial location[5]. It can be defined as the process of industrial development in which related enterprises and institutions in a specific field, including companies, suppliers, research institutions and universities, and related associations, gather in the same area due to their mutual affinity and complementarity, thus forming geographically interconnected and mutually supported industrial clusters. Clusters create a low cost area for production factors, reduce information exchange and logistics costs, thereby forming economies of scale and ultimately enhancing the competitiveness of the country's industry.
1.2 Product Space Theory
Since 2000, with the continuous deepening of complex network theory and its application research, people have begun to try to use this new theoretical tool to study various problems in the real world. The product space theory is a new theory that combines complex networks with industrial cluster theory. It can not only visualize the competitiveness of various countries' industries at the product level, but also provide ideas for the country's next industrial upgrading direction.
First of all, it is necessary to introduce the concepts of product space and industrial upgrading, which is a necessary indicator system for analysis.
Any country has various production factors and resource endowments generated by its historical accumulation and natural environment, which constitute the necessary foundation for a country to carry out production and trade. The country develops and produces new products by allocating existing production capacity and resources, accumulating factors such as capital and manpower. In this process, the greater the difference between the potential target product and the product that the country can currently produce, the higher the resource and time cost required. The common product upgrading path is to transform from labor-intensive to capital-intensive, and then to technology-intensive, that is, the so-called optimization and upgrading of the tertiary industry structure. There are huge gaps between countries in terms of primitive accumulation, and the subsequent investment in production factors such as education, capital and technology also has different focuses. At present, there are huge differences in the production factors and advantageous industries of various countries. Therefore, when carrying out industrial upgrading and industrial optimization, the differences between industrial combinations of various countries will be further widened. Countries need to plan according to their national conditions rather than simply copying the experience of other countries. The latter may be more effective. On this basis, we have established a negative list of industrial development for each country.
When the products that a country can produce are regarded as different nodes in a complex network that is interconnected, it can be found that the process of industrial upgrading is a dynamic change process from a linear industrial structure with a single type, simple processing methods and low technical requirements to a complex network with a complete range of types, diverse processing methods and high-end technical requirements. The original proponents of the product space theory were Hidalgo and Hausmann et al. [7]. They proposed that products are the embodiment of a country's corresponding industrial capabilities and provided a method to quantify the degree of correlation between industries (industry similarity) and an indicator system for the difficulty of industrial upgrading (distance from the current industrial system). The higher the similarity between two products, the closer their demand for production factors is, and the country that can produce one of them has an advantage in producing the other product compared to the country that cannot produce either. From a global perspective, consider a product that a specific country cannot currently produce, calculate the sum of its similarities with all other products in the entire network, and the sum of its similarities with all products that the country can produce. The ratio of the two can be regarded as the correlation between this product and the current industrial structure of the country. The higher the correlation, the easier it is for the country to produce this product; the lower the correlation, the higher the utility of this product in completing the industrial structure and improving the industrial categories, and the farther the product is from the country's existing industrial system. When choosing future development industries, it can be regarded as a trade-off between gradual development and leapfrog development. And observe the changes in the advantageous industries of various countries by calculating indicators, and measure the relationship between economic complexity and industrial changes.
When discussing industrial upgrading, the key to product space is that there is a difference in density based on the calculated correlation between products. The distance between products is not evenly distributed. The complex network composed of all products is a heterogeneous network with a center-edge. Therefore, due to the different initial industrial structures and distributions of different countries, the paths of choice for expanding industrial categories and developing the economy are different, and the difficulty of subsequent industrial upgrading also varies greatly. This must be considered when cultivating and strengthening emerging industries, laying out and building future industries, and improving the modern industrial system for specific industries and industrial chains.
The forest analogy
The idea of the Product Space can be conceptualized in the following manner: consider a product to be a tree, and the collection of all products to be a forest. A country consists of a set of firms—in this analogy, monkeys—which exploit products, or here, live in the trees. For the monkeys, the process of growth means moving from a poorer part of the forest, where the trees bear little fruit, to a better part of the forest. To do this, the monkeys must jump distances; that is, redeploy (physical, human, and institutional) capital to make new products. Traditional economic theory disregards the structure of the forest, assuming that there is always a tree within reach. However, if the forest is not homogeneous, there will be areas of dense tree growth in which the monkeys must exert little effort to reach new trees, and sparse regions in which jumping to a new tree is very difficult. In fact, if some areas are very deserted, monkeys may be unable to move through the forest at all. Therefore, the structure of the forest and a monkey's location within it dictates the monkey's capacity for growth; in terms of economy, the topology of this“product space” impacts a country's ability to begin new producing .
Contents of this article
The first section is the relevant theories involved
The second section explains the calculation methods and principles of the indicators used
The third section is the data range and calculation process used for calculation.
The fourth section analyzes the calculation results.
Chapter 2: Related Calculation Indicators
2.1 Revealed Comparative Advantage
Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) is based on Ricardian trade theory, which posits that patterns of trade among countries are governed by their relative differences in productivity. Although such productivity differences are difficult to observe, an RCA metric can be readily calculated using trade data to "reveal" such differences. While the metric can be used to provide a general indication and first approximation of a country's competitive export strengths, it should be noted that applied national measures which affect competitiveness such as tariffs, non-tariff measures, subsidies and others are not taken into account in the RCA metric.
To a certain year, country c is said to have a revealed comparative advantage in a given product p when its ratio of exports of product i to its total exports of all goods (products) exceeds the same ratio for the world as a whole,That is:
Where
x(c,p) the export value of a certain product p exported by a certain exporting country c
∑_p〖x(c,p)〗 the amount of all product export by a certain exporting country c
∑_c〖x(c,p)〗 the amount of all country export a certain product p
∑_(c,p)〖x(c,p)〗 the amount of all product export by all country(world export amount)
When a country has a revealed comparative advantage for a given product (RCA >1), it is inferred to be a competitive producer and exporter of that product relative to a country producing and exporting that good at or below the world average. A country with a revealed comparative advantage in product i is considered to have an export strength in that product. The higher the value of a country’s RCA for product p, the higher its export strength in product p.
2.2 Export revenue
After determining the product advantage evaluation parameters, we can provide a list of advantageous export products for each country and a list of advantageous international trade suppliers for each product. For any product in a specific year, identify all the exporting economies. Using the per capita GDP given by international organizations, we calculate the weighted average of the per capita GDP of all exporting countries (Based on shares of that product’s global export value). This weighted average value is the economic Export revenue for that product during that year. It measures how much a location could benefit in opening future diversification opportunities by developing a particular product.That is:
Where
x(ci,Pi) the export value of a certain product Pi exported by a certain exporting country c_i
∑_p〖x(ci,p)〗 the amount of all product export by a certain exporting country c_i
∑_c〖x(c,p)〗 the amount of all country export a certain product pi
Based on the product export revenue, combined with the export volume of each product in a specific country in that year, the economic export revenue index of all products P in country C in that year can be obtained. The sum of the weighted products in the export volume is used as the benefit evaluation parameter of the country's foreign trade in that year. That is,
Where
x(ci,Pi) the export value of a certain product Pi exported by a certain exporting country c_i
∑_p〖x(ci,p)〗 the amount of all product export by a certain exporting country c_i
2.3 Proximity
In order to construct a complex network for analysis, it is necessary to calculate the correlation coefficient between two products i and j. Determine all exporting countries that export both products (RCA>1), calculate the conditional probability that a country that exports one product also exports the other product, and the smaller of the two is the correlation coefficient between the two products.
2.4 Distance
With the revealed comparative advantage index and product correlation, we can quantitatively analyze which advantageous export products a country currently has, and for those that do not currently have advantages, we can quantify the degree of correlation with the country's existing export products. The relative distance calculation method is the gap between the degree of correlation between the country's existing products and the degree of correlation between all other products.
2.5 Other indicators
In the calculation, it is also necessary to use the gross domestic product (GDP), per capita GDP, total imports and exports and other import and export related parameters of each economy in the year.
Chapter3 Product Space Calculation
3.1 Data Description
The import and export data comes from the Global Trade Observation Database of Hanwen Information, and the data on the economic situation of various countries or regions comes from relevant data of the World Bank. We used the global import and export trade data from 2010 to 2023 for calculation. In order to ensure the accuracy of the calculation results, only the full-year data of countries with complete and reliable data in the period were used for calculation.
In order to ensure consistency, product statistics are calculated using the globally common product customs code, with a granularity of HS4, and the 98th and 99th chapter codes with inconsistent classification standards in various countries or regions are pre-eliminated. Considering that the HS code is revised every 5 years, the method we adopt is to take the largest set of all valid codes used in the data coverage period for calculation. Therefore, there will be some export products corresponding to the code that has no transaction records and competitive advantage economies in the year. This is for calculation needs.
In order to ensure the comparability of transaction amounts, all amounts involved are converted by exchange rate or statistical results in US dollars.
3.2 Calculation process
Based on the global trade data of the year, we can perform classified statistics to obtain international trade export structure data under the two dimensions of products (accurate to four-digit customs codes) and economies. According to the relevant indicator formula, the export product display comparative advantage index of each country/region participating in the calculation is calculated by product, and the list of advantageous products of each country or region and the list of all advantageous export economies of specific products in that year are obtained. According to this list, combined with the per capita GDP of each country or region in US dollars in that year, the economic benefit index of each product and the foreign trade benefit index of each country or region in that year can be calculated.
According to the definition of similarity, the conditional probability of simultaneous export of two products in each product advantage export economy is tested, and the smaller value is taken to calculate the correlation between each customs code. In combination with the topological structure and stability of the complex network, it is necessary to select a suitable correlation boundary as the standard for the similarity between two products. In the calculation, each HS code is regarded as a node in the complex network, and the product correlation is used as the weight of each edge in the complex network. Then, a relatively stable distribution of the complex network is obtained through calculation simulation. The complex network structure at this time can be regarded as the global product space structure of that year.
Based on the global product space structure and the list of advantageous products of each economy, combined with the international trade import and export data of that year, and combined with the import and export share, the current foreign trade product structure of each economy in the world can be projected in the product space.
On the other hand, by analyzing historical export data, we have obtained products that have been imported but not exported by each economy for a long time, and combined with the economy's own situation, we have screened the list of products that are difficult for the economy to obtain international export competitiveness due to restrictions to form a negative list, and corrected the calculation results to improve the effectiveness of product upgrade paths and revenue forecasts.
Chapter4 Conclusion Analysis
Through calculation and simulation, we have obtained the mapping of each economy in the global product space from 2010 to 2023, which can also be called the foreign trade product structure of each economy. By comparing and calculating the foreign trade product structure of each economy at the same time, we have obtained a method to quantify the intensity of overall product competition between different economies, and we can examine the market share of products and product groups in different markets and their potential future development trends. In addition, combined with the calculation of product revenue and the analysis of the complex network structure of the product space, combined with the product distance improved by the negative list, we can comprehensively consider the development difficulty, potential economic revenue, the effect of complementing the product structure of the economy, and the trend of changes in the global market size of this product. Here, the data indicators in the public project THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY of the Harvard University Growth Lab[8] are referenced to make the above growth revenue forecast.
Single-year industry analysis is only part of it. We can also analyze the history of changes in the foreign trade product structure of various economies based on years of continuous data, examine the changes and migration of various product clusters, and combine the changes in the economic development and foreign trade export competitiveness of various economies in this process to make predictions for the planning and generation of new product clusters.
Reference:
1.Smith, Adam. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Oxford University Press, 1776.
2.Ricardo, David, 1772-1823. On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. London :John Murray, 1817.
3.Leontief, Wassily. “Domestic Production and Foreign Trade; The American Capital Position Re-Examined.” Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, vol. 97, no. 4, 1953, pp. 332–49.
4.Porter, M. E. "The Competitive Advantage of Nations." Harvard Business Review 68, no. 2 (March–April 1990): 73–93.
5.Cantwell, J.A., Helpman, E., & Krugman, P.R. (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy. The Economic Journal, 96, 243.
6.Vernon, R. (1966). International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80(2), 190–207.
7.C.A.Hidalgo et al. ,The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations.Science 317,482-487(2007).
8.The Growth Lab at Harvard University. The Atlas of Economic Complexity. http://www.atlas.cid.harvard.edu.
Product Space
2023
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