Forecasting Algorithm Introduction✕

Trade data is typically time-series data. However, relying on a single time-series forecasting algorithm may not provide the most accurate predictions. To improve forecasting performance, our prediction module integrates time-series forecasting algorithms with machine learning techniques.

First, after obtaining the historical dataset for a specific forecast condition, we perform trend, seasonal, and cyclical analyses on the data. This helps to identify the trend patterns, seasonal patterns, and cycles, and to define the range of parameters to be included in the model. (The historical dataset refers to the data from the GTI International Trade Statistics Database.)

Next, we use Optuna, a tool for hyperparameter optimization, to fine-tune the integrated model for optimal performance. We evaluate the model's performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the metric. To ensure more accurate predictions, our training set includes at least 60 months of historical data, with a validation set consisting of at least 5 months of data.

Finally, the trained model is used to predict data for the time range selected by the user.

View Included Countries/Economies✕

Covers 250 Countries/Economies in the GTI Global Trade Statistics Database

• Albania
• Algeria
• Afghanistan
• Argentina
• United Arab Emirates
• Aruba
• Oman
• Azerbaijan
• Egypt
• Ethiopia
• Ireland
• Estonia
• Andorra
• Angola
• Antigua and Barbuda
• Austria
• Australia
• Anguilla
• Aland Island
• Barbados
• Papua New Guinea
• Bahamas
• Pakistan
• Paraguay
• Palestine
• Bahrain
• Panama
• Brazil
• Belarus
• Bermuda
• Bulgaria
• The Republic of North Macedonia
• Benin
• Belgium
• Iceland
• Bosnia & Herzegovina
• Poland
• Bolivia
• Belize
• Botswana
• Bhutan
• Burkina Faso
• Burundi
• Bouvet Island
• Bonaire Sint Eustatius and Saba
• Puerto Rico
• Northern Mariana Islands
• North Korea
• Equatorial Guinea
• Denmark
• Germany
• East Timor
• Togo
• Dominican Republic
• The Commonwealth of Dominica
• Russia
• Ecuador
• Eritrea
• France
• Faroe Islands
• French Polynesia
• Philippines
• Fiji
• Finland
• Cape Verde
• Vatican City State
• Guadeloupe
• French Southern Territories
• French Guiana
• St. Martin
• Gambia
• Republic of Congo
• Democratic Republic of the Congo
• Colombia
• Costa Rica
• Grenada
• Greenland
• Georgia
• Guam
• Cuba
• Guyana
• Guernsey
• Kazakhstan
• Haiti
• South Korea
• Netherlands
• Netherlands Antilles
• Montenegro
• Honduras
• Heard-Island-and-Mcdonald-Islands
• Sint Maarten
• Kiribati
• Djibouti
• Kyrgyzstan
• Guinea
• Guinea-Bissau
• Canada
• Ghana
• Gabon
• Cambodia
• Czech Republi
• Zimbabwe
• Cameroon
• Qatar
• Cayman Islands
• Comoros
• Kosovo
• Cote D'Ivoire
• Kuwait
• Croatia
• Kenya
• Cook Islands
• Curacao
• Cocos Islands
• Latvia
• Lesotho
• Laos
• Lebanon
• Lithuania
• Liberia
• Libya
• Luxembourg
• Rwanda
• Romania
• Liechtenstein
• Reunion Island
• Madagascar
• Maldives
• Malta
• Malawi
• Malaysia
• Mali
• Mauritius
• Mauritania
• United States
• United States Minor Outlying Islands
• Mongolia
• Montserrat
• Bangladesh
• Peru
• Micronesia
• Myanmar
• Moldova
• Morocco
• Mozambique
• Mexico
• United States Virgin Islands
• Isle of Man
• Falkland Islands
• Martinique
• Monaco
• American Samoa
• Marshall Islands
• Mayotte
• Namibia
• South Africa
• Nepal
• Nicaragua
• Niger
• Nigeria
• Norway
• Norfolk Islands
• Nauru
• South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands
• Niue
• Republic of South Sudan
• Palau
• Portugal
• Pitcairn Islands
• Japan
• Sweden
• Switzerland
• El Salvador
• Samoa
• Serbia
• Sierra Leone
• Senegal
• Cyprus
• Seychelles
• Saudi Arabia
• Sao Tome & Principe
• St. Kitts & Nevis
• St. Lucia
• St. Vincent & the Grenadines
• Sri Lank
• Slovakia
• Slovenia
• The Kingdom of Eswatini
• Sudan
• Suriname
• Solomon Islands
• Somalia
• Christmas Island
• San Marino
• Svalbard and Jan Mayen
• St. Barthelemy
• St. Pierre and Miquelon
• St. Helena
• Tajikistan
• Thailand
• Tanzania
• Tonga
• Turks & Caicos Islands
• Trinidad and Tobago
• Tunisia
• Turkey
• Turkmenistan
• Tuvalu
• Tokelau Islands
• Vanuatu
• Guatemala
• Venezuela
• Brunei
• Uganda
• Ukraine
• Uruguay
• Uzbekistan
• Wallis and Futuna
• Spain
• Greece
• Singapore
• New Caledonia
• New Zealand
• Hungary
• Syria
• Western Sahara
• Jamaica
• Armenia
• Yemen
• Iraq
• Iran
• Israel
• Italy
• India
• Indonesia
• United Kingdom
• Jordan
• Vietnam
• British Virgin Islands
• British Indian Ocean Territory
• Zambia
• Chile
• Central African Republic
• China
• Macao CN
• Taiwan CN
• Hong Kong CN
• Chad
• Gibraltar
• Jersey